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Kentucky Annual Report

2018 Kentucky Annual Economic Report
Christopher R. Bollinger, William Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission as specified in the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738) to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2018 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2017
Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2016
Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

Issue Brief

Kentucky's Educational Performance & Points of Leverage
Michael T. Childress

This issue brief explores the links between obstacles students face and educational outcomes.

How to Raise State Revenue without Raising Taxes
How to Raise State Revenue without Raising Taxes Christopher R. Bollinger

A positive relationship exists between educational attainment and earnings, which has been well established in the literature through multiple studies. This, in turn, influences the revenues generated for the state of Kentucky through the personal income tax. We predict even the modest change of increasing Associate’s and Bachelor’s degree holders by 1% would increase revenue by $37 million. Kentucky loses between $300 million and $500 million in state tax revenues every year because our educational attainment is lower than the national average.

Impact of Education on Medicaid Eligibility
Christopher R. Bollinger

The individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coupled with the Medicaid expansion in Kentucky makes reducing Medicaid eligibility rates of crucial importance. This brief examines the link between education and eligibility for Medicaid for the citizens of Kentucky. In general, the relationship is nearly mechanical in that higher education leads to higher incomes. Since income is the key determining factor of Medicaid eligibility, and because of the individual mandate eligibility is mostly equivalent to participation, our estimates show that higher education reduces the likelihood that an adult will be on Medicaid or have children and family members on Medicaid. Our results suggest that the state of Kentucky could reduce Medicaid costs by $27 million if we were to increase our education levels modestly and as much as $200 million if we can achieve education levels comparable to the U.S.

Moving People Off Public Assistance Programs Through Education
Christopher R. Bollinger

Two of the largest federal transfer programs are the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Federal expenditures on SNAP exceeded $74 billion in 2014, and SSI exceeded $3 billion. While these programs provide families in distress with important support, ideally we desire that Kentucky families would not require this kind of assistance. In 2014, over 800,000 Kentuckians received SNAP assistance each month while over 190,000 received SSI. This brief examines the relationship between participation in these programs and educational attainment for Kentuckians. We find that education is highly related to participation and that those with higher education are much less likely to participate. By increasing educational attainment in Kentucky to the U.S. level, we can move people off of these means tested programs saving over $100 million annually.

The Effects of Education across the Kentucky Economy
Christopher R. Bollinger

The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) (Gatton College, University of Kentucky) was commissioned by Kentucky’s Council for Postsecondary Education to examine the implications of education across the Kentucky economy. This study used data on Kentuckians from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The focus on Kentucky is unique, as most studies of this kind have used only national data. The results have allowed us to examine how education is related to important outcomes related to the Kentucky economy. These studies have also allowed for the unique opportunity to examine and compare the impact of education within different regions of the Commonwealth.

Crime and Punishment and Education
Christopher R. Bollinger, Bethany L. Paris

Crime impacts the lives of Kentuckians in myriad ways. It has direct costs to victims and indirect costs through property values and business activity. Citizens and policymakers alike desire to reduce and limit crime. In this brief, we investigate the link between crime rates in Kentucky’s counties and the aggregate level of education. Perhaps surprisingly, higher education, and specifically the percent of the population with a Bachelor’s degree, is associated with lower crime. We find that increasing educational attainment in Kentucky to the U.S. levels could reduce the costs of crime by over $3 million annually.

Education for Your Health!
Christopher R. Bollinger

The health of the people of Kentucky is of high concern for policymakers and citizens alike. Individuals want to live healthy, productive lives, while policymakers recognize that chronic illnesses cost the state in myriad ways. In this brief, we examine the link between educational attainment and health outcomes. We focus on two groups of health outcomes. The first are behavioral and include choices: tobacco use, alcohol use, obesity, and exercise. The second group are outcomes highly associated with these behaviors: heart attack, angina, stroke, and diabetes. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that these four diseases may cost Kentuckians over $5 billion annually in lost days at work and medical bills. Our simulations suggest that if Kentucky were to achieve education levels comparable to the U.S., we could reduce those costs by nearly $200 million per year.